New research by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany indicates that U.S. tariffs, aggressively implemented last year, have largely been paid by American consumers rather than foreign exporters, contradicting repeated claims by former President Donald Trump.
Analyzing $4 trillion in shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, researchers found that foreign producers absorbed only about 4% of the additional costs, while Americans and U.S. importers absorbed 96%. Julian Hinz, co-author of the study and economics professor at Bielefeld University, said, “There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs… The $200 billion in additional U.S. tariff revenue last year was paid almost exclusively by Americans.”
The study highlights that the tariffs acted more like a consumption tax, with only a small fraction passed on to foreign producers through price reductions.
The findings also reveal a significant effect on trade volumes, with exporters such as those from India maintaining prices but reducing shipments to the U.S. by 18%-24% compared to trade with the EU, Canada, and Australia.
Researchers suggest that exporters may be avoiding cutting prices due to alternative markets, uncertainty over future tariff levels, or steep tariff rates that reduce profitability. While the impact on inflation in the U.S. has so far been moderate, economists warn that sustained tariffs are likely to increase consumer prices over time.
Hinz noted that the distribution of costs could change if U.S. companies seek new sources of imported goods, potentially forcing foreign producers to absorb more of the tariffs in the future.