U.S. officials are scrambling to contain economic and military fallout after the Trump administration underestimated Iran’s aggressive response to U.S.-Israeli strikes, which disrupted Gulf shipping and sent oil prices soaring.
U.S. President Donald Trump and his advisers underestimated Iran’s response ahead of joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes, dismissing warnings that the conflict could severely disrupt global oil supplies. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had publicly said oil markets showed little reaction during earlier clashes, insisting prices had only briefly risen. Trump also downplayed risks, arguing potential market disruptions were a short-term concern compared with the mission to dismantle Iran’s leadership.
The miscalculation became clear as Iran threatened attacks on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for about 20 percent of global oil supply. Commercial shipping across the Gulf largely halted and oil prices surged, forcing the Trump administration to urgently search for ways to limit economic fallout and rising gasoline costs in the United States. Officials also rushed embassy evacuations and revised military plans as Iranian missile and drone strikes intensified.
While some advisers warned Iran would see the attack as an existential threat, others believed eliminating senior leaders could produce a more pragmatic government willing to end hostilities. Trump insisted the operation was a success and urged tanker crews to “show some guts” by sailing through the strait. Meanwhile, U.S. officials acknowledged they had to improvise responses as Iran threatened mining operations and continued leveraging global energy supplies.