Prediction markets show Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem as the most likely Cabinet official to leave President Donald Trump’s administration amid controversies tied to enforcement actions in Minnesota.
Prediction markets indicate Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is the leading candidate to exit President Donald Trump’s Cabinet, according to data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi now gives Noem a 43 percent chance of being the first secretary fired, up sharply from early December following the launch of immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota.
The odds rose after fatal incidents involving ICE and CBP agents in Minneapolis and internal disputes over the administration’s response. A senior administration official told the Daily Beast that Noem is “clearly trying to throw Miller under the bus,” while Polymarket places her at a 56 percent chance of leaving the administration by year’s end.