A war-gaming simulation conducted by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania has found that a civil conflict between state and federal forces could be triggered by events similar to the ongoing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Minneapolis. The experiment, carried out in October 2024 by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL), examined how a widely condemned federal enforcement action could escalate into armed confrontation in a major US city.
In the simulated scenario, a president ordered a federal law enforcement operation and attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania National Guard, a move resisted by the state governor. According to CERL director Claire Finkelstein, writing in the Guardian, the fictional standoff escalated until it culminated in a “violent confrontation” between state-aligned National Guard troops and federal military forces.
Finkelstein noted that the exercise involved former senior military leaders and government officials, none of whom “considered the scenario unrealistic,” assuming courts would be largely ineffective during a rapidly unfolding crisis. The model reflects growing concerns about federal overreach during civil emergencies.
However, researchers stressed that current events in Minneapolis fall well short of armed resistance. While local authorities have limited cooperation with ICE, state officials have emphasized crowd control and public safety, leaving the prospect of open conflict firmly in the realm of simulations rather than reality.