Europe draws up plans for a new NATO without US

Europe is rapidly restructuring NATO to function independently of the United States following President Trump’s threats to withdraw forces over disagreements regarding the Iran conflict and defense spending.

European leaders are accelerating a contingency plan dubbed “European NATO” as anxiety mounts over the reliability of the United States as a security partner. Prompted by President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw from the 32-member alliance, officials are working to supplement U.S. military assets with European ones and shift command-and-control roles to continental leaders. The move follows recent tensions over the Iran conflict, with Washington threatening to relocate troops from nations deemed uncooperative in the U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic shift is being driven by a significant pivot in German policy under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has begun questioning the stability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Alongside allies like the UK, France, Poland, and Sweden, Germany is pushing for Europe to assume a greater share of defense responsibilities, including a boost in the production of high-tech military hardware like hypersonic weapons. Some leaders, such as Finnish President Alexander Stubb, have even suggested that reintroducing the military draft may be necessary to ensure national unity and operational continuity.

Despite the push for autonomy, experts warn that Europe still faces a massive gap in “strategic enablers,” particularly in satellite intelligence and nuclear deterrence. While the alliance boasts significant manpower and advanced hardware—such as the UK’s modern aircraft carriers—the U.S. currently accounts for over $900 billion of NATO’s total $1.5 trillion annual spending. As Europe races to bridge this investment gap, the transition is being managed to ensure that deterrence against Moscow remains credible even if American forces are abruptly reassigned or withdrawn.

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